Date Released: March 7, 2008
FOREIGN TRADE INDICES
THIRD QUARTER 2006
(1995=100)
SUMMARY
Growth Rate in Merchandise Foreign Trade Indices:
3rd Quarter and 2nd Quarters 2006
| Index | Year-on-Year | Quarter-on-Quarter | ||
| 3rd Qtr 2006 | 2nd Qtr 2006 | 3rd Qtr 2006 | 2nd Qtr 2006 | |
| VALUE INDEX | ||||
| Exports | 16.6 | 19.6 | 5.3 | 8.6 |
| Imports | 10.0 | 16.5 | 1.9 | 19.9 |
| PRICE INDEX | ||||
| Exports | -8.7 | 1.6 | -7.3 | -9.5 |
| Imports | 4.0 | 11.7 | 5.6 | 0.0 |
| QUANTITY INDEX | ||||
| Exports | 27.7 | 17.7 | 13.7 | 20.3 |
| Imports | 6.1 | 4.5 | -3.7 | 19.9 |
Value index for both exports and imports sustained their double-digit positive year-on-year growth for the third quarter of 2006.
Price index for imports continued to grow, although at a slower rate of 4.0 percent. Its growth persisted since the third quarter of 2005. In contrast, price index for exports slowed down recording a negative growth of 8.7 percent in the third quarter of 2006.
Volume index for exports continued its upward trend since the first quarter of 2006 after a series of negative growth rates in 2005. Imports’ volume index likewise exhibited a positive growth for two quarters in a row after a decrease in the first quarter of 2006.
I. VALUE INDEX
A. Exports
- Year-on-Year (3rd Quarter 2006 over 3rd Quarter 2005)
Merchandise exports in the third quarter of 2006 registered an aggregate value index of 285.9, representing a 16.6 percent rise from 245.1 index points during the same quarter in 2005. Composite index for Manufactured Goods Classified Chiefly by Materials had the biggest increment of 143.0 percent to 305.9 index points from 125.9 index points during the third quarter of 2005. Value index for Animal and Vegetable Oils, Fats and Waxes, on the other hand, posted the highest decline of 22.5 percent to 60.6 index points from 78.2 index points during the third quarter of 2005. (Table A.2)
Value index for Electronic Products in the third quarter of 2006 went up by 7.6 percent to 458.1 index points from 425.8 index points during the same quarter of 2005. Except for electronic data processing, consumer electronics and communication/radar, all electronic products registered a year-on-year positive growth ranging from a low of 8.9 percent to a high of 96.0 percent. (Table A.3)
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B. Imports
Year-on-Year (3rd Quarter 2006 over 3rd Quarter 2005)
Value index for merchandise imports in the third quarter of 2006 continued to post a double-digit growth at 10.0 percent since the third quarter of 2005. The growth in the current quarter could be attributed to the increases of the nine commodity sections with Beverages and Tobacco leading, which rose by 28.6 percent to 194.3 index points from 151.0 index points during the third quarter of 2005. (Tables B.1 and B.2)
Value index for imports of Electronic Products in the third quarter of 2006 went up by 3.8 percent to 332.0 index points from 319.8 index points during the same quarter of 2005. (Table B.3)
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II. PRICE INDEX
A. Exports
Year-on-Year (3rd Quarter 2006 over 3rd Quarter 2005)
Price index for total merchandise exports in the third quarter of 2006 decreased by 8.7 percent to 115.0 index points from 126.0 index points during the third quarter of 2005. The downward movement in the overall export price index for the current quarter may be due to the significant decline in the price index of Machinery and Transport Equipment by 20.3 percent to 98.0 index points from 123.0 index points during the same quarter of 2005. (Table A.2)
The price index for Electronic Products in the third quarter of 2006 likewise went down by 18.7 percent to 157.7 index points from 194.0 index points during the same quarter of 2005. This may be due to the declines recorded by all electronic products except for communication/radar and medical/industrial instrumentation. (Table A.3)
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Year-on-Year (3rd Quarter 2006 over 3rd Quarter 2005)
Price index for merchandise imports in the third quarter of 2006 managed to grow at slower rate at 4.0 percent to 131.0 index points from 126.0 index points during the third quarter of 2005. Increments were observed in eight commodity sections with Beverages and Tobacco and Commodities and Transactions N.E.C. posting the highest positive growth at 21.2 percent and 11.1 percent, respectively. (Table B.2)
On the contrary, the price index for imports of Electronic Products in the third quarter of 2006 went down by 2.3 percent to 209.8 index points from 214.8 index points during the third quarter of 2005. (Table B.3)
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III. VOLUME INDEX
Year-on-Year (3rd Quarter 2006 over 3rd Quarter 2005)
The volume index of merchandise exports in the third quarter of 2006 sustained its double-digit year-on-year growth at 27.7 percent to 249.0 index points from 195.0 index points during the same quarter of 2005. Positive growth rates were noted in eight commodity sections with Manufactured Goods Classified Chiefly by Materials posting the highest increase of 101.4 percent. (Table A.2) Similarly, volume index of Electronic Products in the third quarter of 2006 inched-up by 32.3 percent to 290.4 index points from 219.5 index points during the third quarter of 2005. This may be due to the significant growth of all electronic products except for communication/radar, consumer electronics and medical/industrial instrumentation. (Table A.3)
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Year-on-Year (3rd Quarter 2006 over 3rd Quarter 2005)
Volume index for merchandise imports showed a positive growth of 6.1 percent during the third quarter of 2006 after posting a negative growth in the first quarter of 2006. The growth was due to the increases of the nine commodity sections with Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles; Manufactured Goods Classified Chiefly by Materials; and Crude Materials, Inedible Except Fuels posting the highest at 13.4 percent, 13.2 percent and 12.8 percent, respectively. (Tables B.1 and B.2)
Year-on-year increase of 6.2 percent was likewise noted in the volume index for Electronic Products in the third quarter of 2006 to 158.2 index points from 148.9 index points recorded in the third quarter of 2005.
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IV. TECHNICAL NOTES
A. Objectives and Uses of Merchandise Trade Indexes
The National Statistics Office generates Merchandise Trade Indices, namely value index, quantity index and price index for merchandise exports and imports. These indices provide a general measure of the changes in value, volume and prices of exported/imported commodity or group of commodities in a given period of time. Thus, these mainly measure the composite changes in the value, quantity and price of various merchandise trades over time.
The main objective of using indices is to break down changes in the values of exports or imports into price changes and volume changes. Thus, indices help us analyze whether a change in value of exports or imports of a commodity or group of commodities can be explained by changes in prices, volumes or both. Furthermore, indices can be used to (1) measure price behavior in international markets, and (2) serve as basis for calculating volume of merchandise trade, which is what is measured in Gross Domestic Product.
B. Source Data and Calculations for Merchandise Trade Indexes
The index calculations are based on the customs declarations, i.e., export and import documents, collected by the National Statistics Office from the Bureau of Customs. For purposes of calculating indices, the information on the F.O.B. value (in US Dollars) and the quantity exported and imported are used. Furthermore, the base year used is 1995 so that the base data used are the values and quantities of exports and imports of specific commodities in 1995.
The value index of a commodity is computed as the quotient of current and base year value. Similarly the price index of the same is calculated as the ratio of current price over base price. In addition, the relative importance of commodities (i.e., weights) in the total export/import is taken into account in the computation of price index. Finally, the quantity index is derived as the ratio between the computed value indices over the computed price indices.
The over-all merchandise trade indices are generated using ten commodity sections in the Philippine Standard Commodity Classification (PSCC) of 1993. The ten sections are: Food and Live Animals; Beverages and Tobacco; Crude Materials, Inedible, Except Fuels; Mineral Fuels, Lubricants and Related Materials; Animal and Vegetable Oils, Fats and Waxes; Chemicals and Related Products; Manufactured Goods Classified Chiefly by Materials; Machinery and Transport Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles and Commodities and Transactions NEC in the PSCC.
The most detailed commodity specification contains approximately 8,314 commodity sub-items and they are defined as aggregate of the commodity classification by which the indices are based on.
Detailed discussion on the methodology can be found in special releases on Foreign Trade posted on the NSO website, http://www.census.gov.ph/data/sectordata/datafts.html.
(Sgd.) CARMELITA N. ERICTA
Administrator
Source: National Statistics Office
Manila, Philippines
Page last updated: March 7, 2008